Development in Earth Science (DES)

Editor-in-Chief: Maofa Ge
Frequency: Continuous Publication
ISSN Online: 2332-3930
ISSN Print: 2332-3922
RSS
Paper Infomation

The Potency of Carbon Dioxide (CO2) as a Greenhouse Gas

Full Text(PDF, 392KB)

Author: Antero Ollila

Abstract: According to this study the commonly applied radiative forcing (RF) value of 3.7 Wm-2 for CO2 concentration of 560 ppm includes water feedback. The same value without water feedback is 2.16 Wm-2 which is 41.6 % smaller. Spectral analyses show that the contribution of CO2 in the greenhouse (GH) phenomenon is about 11 % and water’s strength in the present climate in comparison to CO2 is 15.2. The author has analyzed the value of the climate sensitivity (CS) and the climate sensitivity parameter () using three different calculation bases. These methods include energy balance calculations, infrared radiation absorption in the atmosphere, and the changes in outgoing longwave radiation at the top of the atmosphere. According to the analyzed results, the equilibrium CS (ECS) is at maximum 0.6 °C and the best estimate of  is 0.268 K/(Wm-2) without any feedback mechanisms. The latest warming scenarios of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for different CO2 concentrations until the year 2100 include the same feedbacks as the 2011 warming i.e. only water feedback. The ECS value of 3.0 °C would mean that other feedback mechanisms should be stronger than water feedback. So far there is no evidence about these mechanisms, even though 40 % of the change from 280 ppm to 560 ppm has already happened. The relative humidity trends since 1948 show descending development which gives no basis for using positive water feedback in any warming calculations. Cloudiness changes could explain the recent stagnation in global warming.

Keywords: Strength of CO2; Climate Change; Global Warming; Climate Sensitivity; Climate Sensitivity Parameter



References:

[1] Aldrin, M., Holden, M., Guttorp, P., Bieltvedt Skeie, R., Myhre, G., and Koren Berntsen, G.T. “Bayesian estimation on climate sensitivity based on a simple climate model fitted to observations of hemispheric temperature and global ocean heat content.” Environmetrics 23 (2012): 253-271.

[2] Ardanuy, P. E., Stowe, L.L., Gruber, A., and Weiss, M. “Shortwave, longwave, and net cloud-radiative forcing as determined from Nimbus 7 observations.” J. Geophys. Res. 96 (1991): 18537–18549, doi:10.1029/91JD01992.

[3] Bellouin, N., Boucher, O., Haywood, and J., Shekar Reddy, J.M. “Global estimate of aerosol direct radiative forcing from satellite measurement”. Nature 438 (2003): 1138-1141.

[4] Bengtson, L. and Schwartz, S.E. “Determination of a lower bound on earth’s climate sensitivity.” Tellus B 65 (2012). Accessed January, 2014. 21533, htpp://dx.doi.org/10.3402/tellub.v65i0.21533.

[5] Berk, A, Bernstein, L.S., Robertson, and D.C. “Modtran, A moderate resolution model for lowtran 7.” Accessed January, 2014. http://forecast.uchicago.edu/modtran.html

[6] Bodas-Salcedo, A., Ringer, M.A., and Jones, A. “Evaluation of surface radiation budget in the atmospheric component of the Hadley Centre global environmental model (HadGEM1).” J. Climate 21 (2008): 4723-4748.

[7] Dessler, A.E. “A Determination of Cloud Feegback from Climate Variations over the Past Decade.” Science 330 (2010): 1523-1527, DOI: 10.1126/science.1192546.

[8] Ellingson, R.G., Ellis, J., and Fels, S. “The intercomparison of radiation codes used in climate models.” Journal of Geophysical Research 96 (1991): 8929-8953.

[9] Gats Inc. “Spectral calculations tool.” Accessed January, 2014. http://www.spectralcalc.com/info/about.php.

[10] Hansen, J. et al., “Global Climate Changes as Forecast by Goddard Institute for Space Studies, Three Dimensional Model.” J. Geophys. Res., 93 (1998): 9341-9364 .

[11] Harrison, E.F., Minnis, P., Barkstrom, B.R., Ramanathan, V., Cess, R.D., and Gibson, G.G. “Seasonal Variation of Cloud Radiation Forcing Derived from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment.” J. Geophys. Res. 95 (1990): 18687-18703.

[12] Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics. “The Hitran database.” Accessed January, 2014. http://www.cfa.harvard.edu/HITRAN/.

[13] Hoinka, K.P. “Temperature, humidity, and wind at the global tropopause.” Mon. Wea. Rev. 27 (1999): 2248.

[14] IPCC. “Climate response to radiative forcing.” IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2007a.

[15] IPCC. “Expert Meeting Report. Towards new scenarios for analysis of emissions, climate change, impacts and response strategies.” Technical Summary, 19-12 Sep 2007, Noordwijkerhout, The Netherlands, 2007d.

[16] IPCC. “The Physical Science Basis.” Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2013.

[17] IPCC. “Water vapour and lapse rate.” IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2007c.

[18] IPPC. “Summary for policymakers in Climate Change 2007.” The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2007b.

[19] Kielh, J.T. and Trenbarth, K.E. “Earth’s Annual Global Mean Energy Budget.” Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 90 (1997): 311-323.

[20] Lewis, N. J. “An Objective Bayesian Improved Approach for Applying Optimal Fingerprint Techniques to Estimate Climate Sensitivity.” J. Clim. 26 (2013): 7414-7429.

[21] Loeb, N.G. et al. ”Toward optimal closure of the earth’s top-of-atmosphere radiation budget.” J. Climate 22 (2009): 748-766.

[22] Miskolczi, F. “The stable stationary value of the earth’s global average atmospheric Planck-weighted greenhouse-gas optical thickness.” Ener. & Envir. 21 (2010): 243-262.

[23] Miskolczi, F.M. and Mlynczak, M.G. “The greenhouse effect and the spectral decomposition of the clear-sky terrestrial radiation.” Idöjaras 108 (2004): 209-251.

[24] Myhre, G., Highwood, E.J., Shine, K.P., and Stordal, F. “New estimates of radiative forcing due to well mixed greenhouse gases.” Geophys. Res. Lett. 25 (1998): 2715-2718.

[25] NOAA. “Relative humidity trends. NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory.” Accessed January, 2014. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/aggi/.

[26] Ohmura, A. “Physical basis for the temperature-based melt-index method.” J. Appl. Meteorol. 40 (1997): 753-761.

[27] Ohring, G., and Clapp, P.F. “The Effect of Changes in Cloud amount on the Net Radiation at the Top of the Atmosphere.” J. Atm. Sc. 37 (1980): 447-454.

[28] Ollila, A. “Analyses of IPCC’s warming calculation results.” J. Chem. Biol. Phys. Sc. 4 (2013a): 2912-2930.

[29] Ollila, A. “Changes in cosmic ray fluxes improve correlation to global warming.” Int. J. Ph. Sc, 7(5) (2012b): 822-826.

[30] Ollila, A. “Dynamics between clear, cloudy, and all-sky conditions: Cloud forcing effects.” J. Chem. Biol. Phys. Sc. 4 (2014): 557-575.

[31] Ollila, A. “Earth’s energy balances for clear, cloudy and all-sky conditions.” Dev. in Earth Science 1 (2013b). http://www.seipub.org/DES/

[32] Ollila, A. “The roles of greenhouse gases in global warming.” Ener. & Envir. 23 (2012a): 781-799.

[33] Otto, A. et. al. “Energy budget constraints on climate response.” Nature Geoscience, 6 (2013): 415-416. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1836.

[34] Paltridge, G., Arking, A., and Pook, M. “Trends in middle- and upper-level tropospheric humidity from NCEP reanalysis data.” Theor. Appl. Climatol. 98 (2009): 351–359.

[35] Pierrehumbert, R.T. “Infrared radiation and planetary temperature.” Ph.Today 64 (2011): 33-38.

[36] Ramanathan, V., Cicerone, R.J., Singh, H.B., and Kiehl, J.T. “Trace gas trends and their potential roles in climate change.” J. Geophys. Res. 90 (1985): D3 5547-5566.

[37] Raschke, E. et al., “Cloud effects on the radiation budget based on ISCCP data (1991 to 1995).” International Journal of Climatology 25 (2005): 1103-1125.

[38] Shi, G-Y. 1992. “Radiative forcing and greenhouse effect due to the atmospheric trace gases.” Science in China (Series B), 35 (1992): 217-229.

[39] Shine, A.R., Huybers, P., and Fung, I.Y. “Changes in the phase of the annual cycle of surface temperature.” Nature, 457 (2009): 435-440.

[40] Spencer, R.W., and W.D. Braswell. “On the diagnosis of radiative feedback in the presence of unknown radiative forcing.” J. Geophys. Res. 115 (2011): D16109, doi:10.1029/2009JD013371.

[41] Stephens, G.I. et al., “An update on Earth’s energy balance in light of the latest global observations. Nature Geoscience 5 (2012): 691-696.

[42] Von Storch, H., Barkhordarian, A., Hasselmann, K., and Zorita, K.E. “Can climate models explain the recent stagnation in global warming?” Accessed January, 2014. http://www.academia.edu/4210419/ Can_climate_models_explain_the_recent_stagnation_in_global_warming.

[43] Zhang, Y-C., Rossow, W.B., and Lacis, A.A. “Calculation of radiative fluxes from the surface to top of atmosphere based on ISCCP and other global data sets: Refinements of the radiative model and the input data.” J. Geophys. Res. 109 (2004): 1149-1165.